Convergence or Divergence in Final-Offer Arbitration in Professional Baseball

Many labor relations practitioners and theorists believe that final-offer arbitration by a neutral third party encourages union and management officials to resolve their bargaining differences. However, decision scientists have found that there is no median convergence between the parties. Using professional baseball in our model, we test the assumption that major league owners tend to maximize expected monetary value (EMV), finding that claims of divergence are invalidated in dispute management contexts where there is a broad range of other motivations for settling. Decision models offer even further support for the use of final-offer arbitration in such settings.     

EFFECT OF SURVEY CONDITIONS ON SELF-REPORTED SUBSTANCE USE

This paper examines the impact of survey conditions on the self-reported use of marijuana, cocaine, and alcohol in the 1984 and 1988 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). The analysis obtains probit estimates of lifetime and current participation rates and ordered probit estimates for the current frequency of use. The results clearly indicate that the manner in which the NLSY survey is administered significantly affects the self-reported substance use data. The presence of others at administration, self-administration, and data collection by telephone interview are particularly important influences .     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES AND CONTRACTS: THE USE OF PSYCHOTROPIC MEDICATIONS

The advent of novel psychotropic medications has revolutionized treatments for mental illnesses over the past few decades. Concurrently, changes in mental health coverage, particularly for Medicaid patients, created economic incentives for insurance carriers to shift costs and to encourage the use of psychotropic drugs. To quantify these effects, based on the framework in Griliches' seminal study on hybrid corn, we estimate logistic diffusion models using a longitudinal data set on Medicaid drug utilization. We find that financial incentives played a significant role in encouraging use of new medications that have lower physician specialty skill requirements. ( JEL O30, O33, I18, L14)     

As Luck Would Have It: The Effect of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on Long‐Term Career Outcomes

Using an original data set matching individual birthdays to Vietnam War draft lottery numbers, I study how the random lottery number assignment affects representation in a sample of top corporate executives decades after the war’s end. I find that men with lottery numbers placing them at risk of induction are underrepresented among top U.S. executives in the 1990s. In contrast, I find that high draft risk is positively correlated with indicators of human capital such as earnings and speed of reaching the executive ranks. If the executives are viewed as the winners of a multi‐stage elimination tournament that selected on productivity, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that draft risk led to a mean‐reducing spread in the productivity distribution of draft‐eligible males.